Team USA will play its third game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Monday night against Canada. Chicago White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn will get the go-ahead for an American team that almost found itself pardoned in Sunday night’s loss to Mexico. Team USA’s record now stands at 1-1 with two games remaining, making Monday’s game almost a must if the reigning WBC champion hopes to advance to the next stage.
Below, CBS Sports has previewed what’s in store for Team USA and summarized how Sunday night’s loss complicates their pursuit of a repeat as champions. Before going into the details of the Americans’ situation, we thought it would be helpful to provide a refresher on how the tournament structure of the WBC works.
In the first phase, the pool game, 20 teams are sorted into four containers. Each of these five teams in each pool plays each other, for a total of four games. From there, the tournament moves into its second phase, where the two teams with the best records in each of the four pools advance to an eight-team, single-elimination tournament. In other words, the eventual champion is the team that wins three consecutive elimination games.
got it Good. Now let’s take a closer look at Team USA and what to expect.
1. The remaining schedule
As mentioned above, this initial WBC phase involves each playing a game against the other four teams in the pool. Team USA has already played against Great Britain and Mexico, which leaves them with dates against Canada and Colombia.
- Canada, Monday 10:00 p.m. ET
- Colombia, Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET
The Americans will take on the Canadians on Monday night before taking Tuesday off. They then play against Colombia on Wednesday evening. As it stands, this game could have win-or-go-back-to-spring-training stakes.
2. The current pool picture
Team USA received major help from the UK on Monday. After looking overwhelmed in their first two games, the Brits angered Colombia and paved the way for the Americans to take charge of their own destiny. Here’s how Pool C fares after Britain’s excitement over Colombia:
|
Canada |
1 |
0 |
3 |
|
Colombia |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Mexico |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
USA |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
2 |
1 |
Canada still has most of their tournament ahead of them so Pool C will continue to form in the coming days. Despite Monday’s surprise win over Colombia, we can write with some confidence that Britain will not progress. They meet Mexico in their fourth and final game of the first round on Tuesday night.
Thanks to Britain’s victory over Colombia, the US determines its own fate. Victories over Canada on Monday and Colombia on Wednesday send the USA through to the second round. In this case the US would have one loss, Great Britain and Colombia would each have at least two losses and either Canada or Mexico would have two losses – Mexico already has one loss and Canada would lose to the USA plus Canada and Mexico still play each other to make sure that one of these teams would suffer a second defeat.
There is a scenario where Wednesday’s first round final between USA and Colombia is a game of victory. To do that, the US would have to beat Canada on Monday, Colombia on Tuesday Canada and Mexico on Tuesday Great Britain. In this case, this is what Pool C would look like when participating in Wednesday’s competitions:
|
Colombia |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Mexico |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
USA |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Canada |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
3 |
0 |
The winner of Wednesday’s game between the United States and Colombia would end the pool game with just one loss and secure their ticket to the second round, regardless of what happens between Canada and Mexico on Wednesday. This is one of the “simple” scenarios. It’s easy for the USA: win the next two games and they advance to the second round.
If the US lost Monday’s game to Canada now, they would have their backs against the wall. If USA loses to Canada on Monday while Colombia beats Canada on Tuesday and Mexico beats UK on Tuesday, this would be the Pool C standings coming in on Wednesday:
|
Colombia |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Mexico |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Canada |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
USA |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
3 |
0 |
The winner of Wednesday’s Canada-Mexico match would advance to the second round, and the US would need to beat Colombia on Wednesday to earn a 2-2 draw between the US, Colombia and the three-team loser Canada-Mexico. Only two teams can advance, so how, if you please, would that work? We’re glad you asked.
3. The possible tiebreaker
The WBC’s tiebreaker rules are simple when it’s a standoff between two teams: the team that won the head-to-head has the advantage. The WBC tiebreaker rules for ties involving three or more teams are far more complex. Our Mike Axisa laid out the following on Sunday to explain the tie between five teams in Pool A:
Here are the tiebreaker rules for a tie between three or more teams:
The lowest ratio of the fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between two evenly ranked teams.
The lowest quotient of the fewest runs earned divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between two tied teams.
Highest batting average in games this round between the tied teams.
A raffle.
Note that the first tiebreaker runs are allowed – no runs scored, no run difference, but runs allowed – and only in matches between the tied teams. The USA conceding 11 runs to Mexico on Sunday was potentially devastating, but if Mexico beat Canada on Wednesday that game would be irrelevant for tiebreak purposes. The three-team tie would include the United States, Canada and Colombia, not Mexico.
The teams USA, Canada and Colombia have not yet played against each other, so these tiebreaker quotients do not yet exist. Bottom line, the US can win their next two games and advance to the second round and avoid a massive tiebreak scenario altogether. This is their best course of action. Defeat Canada, Defeat Colombia, Reach Quarterfinals.